Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know. The problems is that we like to have maps-and seem to prefer to have the wrong map of reality to no map at all. For a long time we liked to have any medicine to no medicine-and medicine only started helping (not hurting) patients in the 20th century. We prefer any theory, even wrong, to no theory. Theorizing is the default activity for our brain; suspension of belief is an active one. Because of the narrative fallacy, our minds default to theory making. It takes more conscious effort-and energy-to suspend beliefs. It also takes more training-we train children to find “explanations” instead of just teaching them to have the guts to say, “I don’t know” in certain circumstances.”

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